Analysis of Electric Vehicle Purchase Incentives and Business Case for Electric Buses


This presentation combines one recent and one forthcoming article by Caley Johnson. “The role of demand-side incentives and charging infrastructure on plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) adoption: analysis of US States” (July 2018) quantifies the influence of key incentives and enabling factors like charging infrastructure and receptive demographics on PEV adoption. “Business Case for Electric Buses” (forthcoming) assesses the payback and net present value (NPV) of an investment in electric buses. This includes a sensitivity analysis to show which fleet parameters are the most influential on NPV and which of these parameters are the most volatile. The goal is to help fleet managers determine if electric buses would be profitable for their particular fleet and ways they can maximize the profits.



Caley Johnson
Senior Transportation Market Analyst
National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Caley Johnson is a senior transportation market analyst for the National Renewable Energy Lab. In this role, he assesses the economics of advanced fuel and transportation technologies in various applications, locations, and policy environments. This work has included business cases for convenience stores selling E85, municipal fleets using CNG, EV service companies implementing battery-swap, bus rapid transit systems using EVs, and all players involved in producing, distributing, and using high-octane E30 in optimized vehicles. Caley also monitors and quantifies the adoption of transportation technologies into local economies through the Department of Energy’s Clean Cities program.


Prior to working for NREL, Caley was a project manager in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Climate Protection Partnerships Division and a co-founder of the solar power company Soltage. He holds a bachelor of arts degree in biology from the University of Colorado and a master of environmental management degree from Yale University.